03
2019
-
04
Spring is here for the shipping industry? Shipping confidence is up!
Author:
The BDO Shipping Confidence Survey shows that confidence in the shipping industry has increased over the past three months, despite a series of geopolitical and trade disputes that have created uncertainty in many sectors.
Feedback from respondents showed an average confidence level of 6.2 out of 10, up from a score of 6.0 in the fourth quarter of 2018. Specifically, confidence rose from 6.1 to 6.3 in Europe and from 5.2 to 5.6 in North America. but the news was not positive everywhere.
Regionally, Europe and North America rose, from 6.1 and 5.2 to 6.3 and 5.6, respectively, while Asia declined, falling to 5.8 from a 12-month high of 6.3 last quarter.
Much of the increase in market confidence can be attributed to shipbrokers. The ratings of shipowners and managers fell slightly from 6.4 and 6.0 to 6.3 and 5.8, respectively. charterer confidence also fell, from 6.8 to 6.0, but was still higher than 12 months ago at 5.0.
Confidence up, investment down
Respondents' likelihood of making major investments and developments in the next 12 months dropped from 5.5 to 5.3. In Europe, it rose from 5.2 to 5.3, while in Asia it fell from 6.2 to 6.2.
Positive freight rate confidence
51% of respondents expect freight rates in the tanker market to increase in the next 12 months. This is down 9 percentage points from 60% in the last survey.
In the dry bulk segment, those who believe freight rates will increase rose strongly from 38% to 52%, while those who believe they will decrease rose by 4% to 15%. In the container segment, 26% of respondents believe that freight rates will rise, while the proportion of container ship rates expected to fall rose from 23% to 25%.
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