Geneva, October 10 (Xinhua) -- The World Trade Organization released a report on October 10, predicting that global trade in goods will increase by 2.7% in 2024, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 2.6%.

The report shows that the global trade volume of goods increased by 2.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, and will continue to recover in the second half of this year and 2025.

The report predicts that, based on market exchange rates, the global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate will remain stable at 2.7% in 2024 and 2025.

The report suggests that by mid-2024, global inflation levels have decreased enough for central banks to cut interest rates. Lower inflation will increase real household income and stimulate consumer spending, while lower interest rates will increase investment spending for businesses.

The report also warns that as central banks around the world lower interest rates, monetary policy divergence among major economies may lead to financial instability and a shift in capital flows. This may increase the debt servicing costs of underdeveloped economies.

The Director General of the World Trade Organization, Evira, said that global trade will gradually recover in 2024, but potential risks should still be vigilant, especially the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which indirectly affect global energy costs and shipping routes.

Ivira calls for further promotion of inclusive global trade. We must continue to work together to ensure global economic stability and sustained growth, as these are crucial for enhancing the well-being of people around the world

The report predicts that the export value of the European region will decrease by 1.4% and the import value will decrease by 2.3% in 2024. European exports are being dragged down by the region's automotive and chemical industries. In addition, the export value of the Asian region will increase by 7.4%, far exceeding other regions. Driven by economies such as China, the region's exports rebounded strongly in the first half of this year.

The report suggests that in the short term, the growth rate of global trade in services is higher than that of trade in goods. The service trade volume denominated in US dollars increased by 8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, and is expected to maintain relatively strong growth in the second quarter.